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22 12 08 - 10:14
Dreaming of a white Yule? You're not alone. The Russians are remarking on the end of the traditional Russian winter:
Employees of the Moscow Zoo say that their bears won't hibernate. Moscow power stations suffer huge losses because they receive the money only for the heat that they produce and sell to their consumers.
The warm and muddy winter is only good for car wash stations maybe, the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper wrote. Cars can be seen lined up in front of many car wash stations in Moscow.
Meteorologists say that Moscow will most likely not see the true Russian winter anymore.
We are living through an era of rapid change. Quite how the US president elect could enthuse people by unspecified promises of further "change" is really amazing. No one could promise that things won't change, but we need some stability in this world. Promising "change" is just adding to the chaos. Now, less of the politics and back to talking about the weather.
The odds of a "white Christmas" in temperate parts of the northern hemisphere have diminished in the last century due to climate change and will likely decline further by 2100, climate and meteorology experts said.
"The probability of snow on the ground at Christmas is already lower than it was even 50 years ago but it will become an even greater rarity many places by the latter half of the century," said Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarber, climate researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. In the northern German city of Berlin, for instance, the chances of snow on the ground on December 24, 25 and 26 have fallen from 20 percent a century ago to approximately 15 percent in 2008, he said. By 2100 the odds will be less than 5 percent.
Berlin last had snow on the ground at Christmas in 2001, and even though the German capital is due a festive snowfall, from a statistical point of view, meteorologists say it will not be white in 2008 either.
Scandinavians particularly miss the snow. In winter, there are low light levels so far north, and the snow brightens things, reflecting the rays of the sun. The Brits generally think a little snow on the 25th is lovely, but prefer none to fall. Britain's "heavy" snow is "the wrong sort of snow", a slushy brown layer of an inch or two which causes schools to close and public transport to, rather pathetically, stop running.
A few years ago there seemed some hope that climate change would precipitate an ice age in northern Europe as it melted arctic ice.
The Odden ice tongue, like all sea-ice, was considered an important driving force in the circulation of the ocean currents. As ice forms from salt water, salt is rejected, which causes a rise in salinity. This cold, dense, salty water sinks to the bottom of the sea, helping to drive the movement of deep ocean currents.
The Odden ice tongue was last seen in 1997, and its disappearance suggests that this important engine of ocean circulation could be slowing, Professor Wadhams said.
Melting sea-ice threatens to disrupt these ocean "conveyor belts" of water. The worst scenario for Britain could be the collapse or movement further south of the warm Gulf Stream, which could cause us to experience a climate similar to that of Newfoundland, which regularly freezes in winter. .
In September 2008, Aftenposten carried a report saying that these fears of a weakened Gulf Stream were inaccurate.
The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) reports that several observations in recent years suggested the circulation of the Gulf Stream had weakened, possibly because of global warming. Studies, the institute noted, had suggested that the flow of cold water south was down by half.
A group of researchers from Denmark, the Faeroe Islands, Germany and Norway thus started paying closer attention to the Gulf Stream, and now they're releasing conclusions that can leave climate researchers breathing a sigh of relief.
"It hasn't only been possible to show that the currents instead have maintained a surprisingly constant strength during the last 50 years, but we can also point out where earlier signs of weakness were misleading," said Steffen M Olsen of DMI.
The ice age sounds a lot more fun than the idea of a tropical climate.
I remember how, as a child in the Scottish Highlands, I looked forward to sledging down hills and skating on frozen ponds. Many winters my family went to Finland where the snow was fantastic this time of year. Once I went out when it was minus 40 degrees Celsius, near Helsinki. That was an unforgettable experience. Even my eyeballs were icing up!
My parents left for Finland today, telling me there is no snow and the temperature is 3 degrees. I doubt there are anywhere near as many people so far north, compared with southerners, who doubt the reality of climate change!
"
To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow; a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."
From William Shakespeare's "Macbeth"
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